Data & Code

Research data and open teaching materials.

World real rates

Monthly series of the world real rate and its expected volatility over the last two centuries, built for my job market paper.

Monthly world real rate in percent per year and expected volatility in annualized percentage points, 1815 to 2025

Building on Schmelzing (2020), the nominal world rate is the long maturity, default free yield of the world safe asset provider. As in Rogoff et al. (2024), expected inflation follows Homer and Sylla (1996). Expected volatility comes from the GARCH MIDAS model of Engle et al. (2013), fitted to the forecast errors of a second order autoregression for the world real rate.

Open notebooks

Portfolio choice

Tactical Asset Allocation

Python exercises on return prediction, tactical allocation, and portfolio construction.

International investments

FX Attribution Analysis

A worked example of currency exposure and performance attribution for a portfolio of Canadian and American stocks.